Denmark: MAKE Consulting Releases Global Wind Power Market Outlook Report

MAKE Consulting has published its 2012 Global Wind Power Market Outlook report. MAKE continues to see significant growth in the global wind power markets with an expected compound annual growth rate of 7% – a downgrade from MAKE’s last quarterly forecast of a 10% 5-year CAGR.

High growth is expected in new emerging markets and offshore wind while weak macro conditions and uncertainty around support mechanisms has led to significant downgrades of expected demand in the U.S., Spain, and India. MAKE expects growth to be front loaded with an expected 23% growth in 2012 driven by waning and soon to expire support mechanisms.

The wind power industry experienced a strong 2011, bringing online over 40GW – an almost 20% year on year growth from 2010 – led by Asia Pacific, which eclipsed other regions with more than half of all global additions. China accounted for most of these additions, with 17.4GW connected to the grid, up from 14GW in 2010. India followed China in the region with a strong 2.8GW connected in 2011, up from 2.1GW connected the previous year. However, India is struggling with an impending policy flux as its Accelerated Depreciation and Generation-Based Incentive schemes are likely to expire in the near future; leading to a downgrade of MAKE’s forecast for the country through 2016.

Europe’s wind market is split geographically, with the stronger economies of Northern Europe eclipsing their southern neighbors. Installations grew in Northern Europe by 21% in 2011 over 2010 levels, with nearly 5GW of grid connected capacity. Southern Europe showed flat growth in 2011 despite declines in France and Spain. Offshore wind will play a key role in galvanizing the divide between Northern and Southern Europe as the wind businesses position themselves for offshore wind’s higher growth rates, government incentives, and relative appeal against increasing saturation of onshore development.

The Americas market remains substantial, but high growth rates are shifting away from the U.S. to higher growth in Canada and Latin America. Canada saw a growth of 75% with 1.27GW brought online while Latin America logged 41% growth totaling 1.1GW in 2011, up from over 767MW in 2010. In the U.S., short term growth is fuelled by expiring federal policies which will likely support over 9.5GW of capacity connected in 2012. MAKE is cautiously optimistic that key policies will be extended with a short tenure, most likely in December. However, the damage to 2013 activity will have already been done, and MAKE forecasts a U.S. downturn, which will contribute to a 5% decline in overall global installations in 2013.

Global Wind Power Market Outlook 2012 is a 120 page report that provides a comprehensive analysis of the market for wind power in over 40 key and emerging markets, with updated data on global and country installed and grid-connected capacity. It provides five-year market outlooks, with detailed analysis of onshore and offshore markets along with detailed market attractiveness studies for key wind power markets.

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Offshore WIND staff, March 26, 2012