Of the fifteen countries that have offshore wind specified development targets for 2030, 80 per cent are already predicted to miss their stated goals, with only Vietnam, Poland, and Denmark set to meet or exceed 2030 offshore wind targets, according to a new report from the Renewables Consulting Group (RCG).
RCG’s report finds that several developed and emerging markets are falling behind their stated net-zero climate ambitions, and looks at the capacity goals estimated by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which predict that an installed global capacity of 270 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 2,000 GW by 2050 will be needed to reach net-zero ambitions.
To achieve these targets, the current global capacity would need to be installed every year until 2030 and then 2.5 times that amount (86.5 GW per year) for each of the following 20 years, according to RGC, which says that its research to date shows that target will be missed by 7 per cent.
Among the reasons for most countries with offshore wind targets missing their goals, RCG cites the lengthy planning and approval processes for offshore wind, as well as macroeconomic factors as offshore wind faces serious cost inflation due to raw materials shortages and price increases.
Offshore wind remains competitive, but RCG warns that these increasing capital costs may continue to undermine net zero goals and targets, the analyst, an ERM Group Company, said.